Update 10 December 2018
On 3 December 2018, AEMO made the decision to delay the deployment of the IT system changes which underpin the updated Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines. A Market Notice was sent advising stakeholders on 3 Dec 2018 (MN 65685).
On 7 December 2018, AEMO rescheduled the deployment to 12 December 2018. As a result, AEMO has republished the updated Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines with the new effective date of 12 December 2018. A minor formatting issue was also corrected in Table 2 of Appendix C.
The republished Guidelines document is available on AEMO’s webpage: http://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Security-and-reliability/Power-system-operation
Consultation Completion 14 November 2018
AEMO has completed the consultation on changes to the Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines.
AEMO issued a Notice of First Stage Consultation on 16 July 2018 and published an Issues Paper which presented the changes it was considering as part of this consultation. The proposed changes were to improve the process for summer 2018-19 and to develop the process further. The Issues Paper noted that AEMO was still progressing the development process to determine whether those changes would proceed, and to establish their full specification.
AEMO received two written submissions to the Issues Paper, from ERM Power and the Australian Energy Council. Although the Australian Energy Council expressed concern that there was insufficient detail in the Issues Paper, the submissions provided several suggestions and observations that AEMO was able to take into account during the consultation, and other suggestions for review after summer 2018/19.
AEMO published an Update Paper on 5 October 2018 providing further information, analysis, and justification for the proposed changes. Informed by AEMO’s further analysis and stakeholder submissions, the Update Paper also identified some proposals from the Issues Paper that would not be progressed or required modification.
AEMO held a stakeholder forum on 12 October 2018 to discuss each of the proposed changes. The forum was attended by representatives from eight registered market participants.
AEMO received three written submissions to the Update Paper, from ERM Power, EnergyAustralia, and Origin Energy.
Having considered the matters raised in submissions, AEMO’s determination is to amend the Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines in the form published below, in accordance with clause 4.8.4A(e) of the NER.
AEMO intends to make the amended version of the Guidelines effective on 6 December 2018. AEMO will issue a market notice to inform participants of the effective date once it has been confirmed. AEMO will issue an additional market notice when the system implementation is effective.
Final Report and Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines
- Changes to Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines – Final Report and Determination (569 KB, pdf)
- Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines (1.2 MB, pdf)
- Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines with change markup (1.3 MB, docx)
Submissions to the Update Paper
- Energy Australia submission to the Update Paper (187 KB, pdf)
- ERM Power submission to the Update Paper (237 KB, pdf)
- Origin submission to the Update Paper (130 KB, pdf)
Update 16 October 2018
Following feedback from stakeholders, AEMO has extended the date for submissions to the Update Paper and draft Guidelines.
Stakeholders are invited to submit written responses to the Update Paper and draft Guidelines by 5:00 pm (Melbourne time) on Wednesday 24 October 2018. Submissions should be sent by email to lor2018@aemo.com.au
The Final report and final version of the Guidelines will be published on 14 November 2018.
The slides presented at the Stakeholder forum on 12 October 2018 are available below:
Update 8 October 2018
AEMO will be holding a stakeholder teleconference forum on Friday 12 October 2018 at 11:00 AM Sydney time (10:00 AM AEST).
AEMO invites stakeholders to register for this event by emailing lor2018@aemo.com.au
Teleconference dial-in details and a set of presentation slides will be circulated to registered attendees prior to the forum, and the presentation slides will be published on this webpage after the forum.
Update 5 October 2018
AEMO has published an Update Paper to provide stakeholders with further information, analysis and justification of the proposed changes to the Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines.
AEMO received two written responses to the Issues Paper published on 16 July 2018 – these submissions have been published below. Both submissions requested further information and justification for the proposed changes.
The Update Paper provides clarity around each of the proposed changes. Several of the proposed changes require no updates to the Guidelines, however additional information and justification is provided to increase the transparency of how the reserve level is determined. For the proposed changes which require updates to the Guidelines, additional information and justification is provided and a draft of the Guidelines with the required updates is attached.
AEMO intends to hold a stakeholder forum prior to the submission due date of 19 October 2018. The date of this forum and details of how to register will be published on this webpage once this information is known.
Stakeholders are invited to submit written responses to this Update Paper and the draft of the Guidelines by 5:00 pm (Melbourne time) on Friday 19 October 2018. Submissions should be sent by email to lor2018@aemo.com.au
If you have any enquiries, please contact op.forecasting@aemo.com.au
- Update Paper – Changes to Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines (1.8 MB, pdf)
- Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines V2 Draft (1.5 MB, docx)
- ERM Power submission to initial consultation (194 KB, pdf)
- AEC submission to initial consultation (160 KB, pdf)
Initial Consultation launch 16 July 2018
Stakeholders are invited to submit written responses on the issues identified in the accompanying issues paper by 5.00 pm (Melbourne time) on Wednesday 22 August 2018 in accordance with the Notice of Consultation.
The proposed changes can be categorised into two groups as follows:
- To improve performance for 2018-19
- Reducing number of models per region.
- Changing the output bin structure.
- Changing temperature input bin ranges.
- Reducing number of output nodes and interpolating in between.
- To extend the BBN model horizon to cover the 144th trading interval in the horizon.
- To continue development of the process
- Potential for including additional predictors (if any) into the model.
- Possible revision of the definition of Regional Excess Supply to take further sources of uncertainty into account.
- Introducing flexibility in determining the frequency of retraining.
The first group of proposed changes would not impact upon the intent of the current Guidelines. The scope of these will have limited impact on the Guidelines, with only consequential updates affecting the examples shown in Appendix A.
The second group of proposed changes would require more material changes to the Guidelines and are thus the focus of this Consultation.
Stakeholders are invited to submit written responses on the issues identified in the accompanying issues paper by 5.00 pm (Melbourne time) on Wednesday 22 August 2018 in accordance with the Notice of Consultation.
- Notice of Consultation Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines (289 KB, pdf)
- Issues Paper Changes to Reserve Level Declaration Guidelines (631 KB, pdf)