Reliability forecasts are a critical input to triggering obligations under the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO), introduced on 1 July 2019. AEMO is required to consult on and publish Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines by 31 December 2019 in accordance with the National Electricity Rules (NER) clause 11.116.4(a).
These Interim Guidelines will apply for the reliability forecast produced as part of the 2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO). Final Reliability Forecast Guidelines are to be published by 28 February 2021 as per NER clause 11.116.4(c).
On 3 October, AEMO published its Draft Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines invited written submissions from interested stakeholders, as detailed in the Consultation Timeline below.
An Industry Workshop was held on 17 October to discuss the Interim Guidelines with interested parties.
Consultation timeline
| Stage | Indicative date | Status |
| Draft Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines published for consultation |
Thursday 3 October 2019 |
Complete |
| Industry workshop |
Thursday 17 October 2019 |
Complete |
| Consultation submissions due |
Thursday 31 October 2019 |
Complete |
| Consultation determination published |
Thursday 28 November 2019 |
Complete |
| Interim reliability forecast guidelines published |
Thursday 19 December 2019 |
Complete |
Final Determination
On Thursday 19 December, AEMO published its Final Report and accompanying Interim Reliability Forecasting Guidelines.
- Final Report (345 KB, pdf)
- Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines (992 KB, pdf)
The Final Report represents AEMO’s response to the submissions. Alongside this, AEMO has published its amended Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines.
It also published an updated ESOO and Reliability Forecast Methodology document, which is the previous ESOO methodology document with the reliability forecast details included as a separate section.
- ESOO and Reliability Forecast methodology document (659 KB, pdf)
For all purposes the published Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines and documents referred to within replace the Reliability Forecasting Methodology paper previously consulted on prior to introduction of RRO.
Industry workshop
AEMO held a stakeholder workshop 17 October 2019 to brief stakeholders on AEMO's considerations behind the Draft Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines and allow stakeholders to seek additional clarity around the points raised in the consultation paper before making their submissions.
The slide pack from the workshop is available here:
- Industry workshop 17 Oct – combined slide pack (1.54 MB, pdf)
Draft interim guidelines and consultation paper
On 3 October 2019, AEMO started the consultation on the Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines.
The draft Interim Reliability Forecast guidelines are available at:
- Draft Interim Reliability Forecast guidelines (682 KB, pdf)
To guide feedback and highlight key aspects of the guidelines a Consultation Paper was also published:
- Interim guidelines consultation paper (237 KB, pdf)
Submissions
- ENGIE Submission to AEMO - Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines, Oct 2019 (304 KB, pdf)
- Ergon Energy Queensland Submission to AEMO - Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines, Oct 2019 (98 KB, pdf)
- ERM Power Submission to AEMO - Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines, Oct 2019 (460 KB, pdf)
- EUAA Submission to AEMO - Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines, Oct 2019 (326 KB, pdf)
- MEU Submission to AEMO - Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines, Oct 2019 (29 KB, pdf)
- QUEN Submission to AEMO - Interim Reliability Forecast Guidelines, Oct 2019 (70 KB, pdf)