Transmission Connection Point Forecasts for Tasmania

Purpose

AEMO has prepared this page to provide information about its transmission connection point forecasts for Tasmania.

AEMO publishes these connection point forecasts in line with clause 5.22.18(b) of the National Electricity Rules, as part of its national transmission planner (NTP) functions. 

Disclaimer

AEMO has made every reasonable effort to ensure the quality of the information in this publication but cannot guarantee that information, forecasts and assumptions are accurate, complete or appropriate for your circumstances. This publication does not include all of the information that an investor, participant or potential participant in the National Electricity Market might require, and does not amount to a recommendation of any investment.

Anyone proposing to use the information in this publication (including information and reports from third parties) should independently verify and check its accuracy, completeness and suitability for purpose, and obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts.

Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, AEMO and its officers, employees and consultants involved in the preparation of this publication:

• make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information in this publication; and
• are not liable (whether by reason of negligence or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or other matters contained in or derived from this document, or any omissions from it, or in respect of a person’s use of the information in this publication.

Published: July 2021

Please note: these forecasts are based on information available to AEMO as at 1 June 2021, although AEMO has endeavoured to incorporate more recent information where practical. 

This page uses many terms that have meanings defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER). The NER meanings are adopted unless otherwise specified.

The 2020 AEMO Connection Point Forecasting Methodology overview provides a summary of the modelling approach undertaken, a detailed methodology document will be published in Q3 2021.

Acknowledgement

AEMO acknowledges TasNetworks’ support, co-operation, and contribution in providing data and information used in these forecasts.

Background

The connection point forecasting methodology directly incorporates the effects on demand due to population growth and embedded technologies such as photovoltaics, batteries and electric vehicles. Forecasts of maximum and minimum demand are produced for connection points independently, and the resulting forecasts are described as "non-coincident". Forecasts of connection point demand are also produced for times of regional maximum and minimum demand, and these are described as "coincident" forecasts. The "coincident" forecasts are reconciled to regional forecasts from AEMO’s 2020 Electricity Statement of Opportunities.  The 2020 Projections for Small-scale Embedded Technologies Report produced by the CSIRO, describes numerous inputs applied in the 2020 Connection Point Forecasts. Population projections included in the forecast inputs were sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

2021 connection point results and insights

Refer to the dynamic interface for detailed information on individual connection points.

Figures 1 and 2 show the winter and summer annual average rates of change for 10% POE forecasts for each connection point in Tasmania. Some direct-connect industrial loads are excluded due to confidentiality.

Figures 3 and 4 show the average annual growth in minimum operational demand for summer and shoulder seasons. Growth is shown on the same basis as figures 1 and 2, as a percentage of the latest actual maximum operational demand, after adjusting for outages and temporary load transfers. Once again, some loads are excluded from the figures to maintain confidentiality.

Table 1 lists the drivers of large changes in operational demand over the 10-year forecast period. Changes are considered large if the average annual growth rate exceeds 2% of the actual maximum operational demand in 2020-21.

Table 1: Drivers at connection points with average annual change in maximum operational demand (10% POE) exceeding 2% of actual maximum operational demand in 2020-21.

Table 2: Drivers at connection points with average annual change in minimum operational demand (90% POE) exceeding 2% of actual maximum operational demand in 2020-21.

Supplementary information

Archive of Previous Tasmanian Forecasts and Reports