Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System

Background

The Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) was established in response to the growth in intermittent generation in the NEM, and the increasing impact this growth was having on NEM forecasting processes. The system aims to provide better forecasts that will drive improved efficiency of overall NEM dispatch and pricing, and permit better network stability and security management.

Overview

The implementation project had two broad objectives:

• Facilitating the operation of the market through more accurate wind generation forecasts.
• Facilitating research to improve the quality and dimension of the forecast over time to accommodate other renewable types such as solar.

AWEFS Operation

AEMO hosts the system and maintains its interface to the existing market systems to give data access to the market and to individual wind farms. Data access may also be given to researchers who have signed a sub-licensing agreement and appropriate confidentiality arrangements.
AWEFS produces forecasts from the following inputs:

• Real time SCADA measurements from the wind farms.
• Numerical Weather Predictions from weather forecasters from around the world.
• Standing data from the wind farms.
• Availability information provided by the wind farms, that includes turbines under maintenance and upper MW limit on the wind farm.

The system will produce wind generation forecasts for all NEM wind farms (>= 30MW) for all NEM forecasting timeframes as follows:

• Dispatch (five minutes ahead).
• 5 Minute Pre dispatch (five minute resolution, one hour ahead).
• Pre-dispatch (30 minute resolution, up to 40 hours ahead).
• ST PASA (30 minute resolution, seven days ahead).
• MT PASA (daily resolution, two years ahead).

The AWEFS Energy Conversion Model and relevant guides can be found here.