Forecasting approach

The Forecasting Approach encompasses the breadth and depth of AEMO's medium and long term electricity forecasting for the NEM. This Forecasting Approach web page serves as an overview and convenient launching point to the guidelines and methodologies.

Forecasting approach and consultation timeline

The Forecasting Approach diagram below represents how forecasting components build up to the high level forecasting deliverables that AEMO publishes. The components are colour-coded to indicate their relevant documentation.

Guidelines and methodologies evolve according to improvement opportunities noted by AEMO and stakeholders, and to reflect rule changes. Each document describes the approach used for determining modelling inputs, incorporating/publishing data, reporting forecast uncertainties, incorporating exogenous factors, and representing resource/network constraints affecting energy delivery. The documents are reviewed and consulted on at least every four years, and where they fall under the Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines, short form consultations may occur between standard consultations.

The Forecasting Consultation timetable below sets out the most recent and planned consultation dates, and includes links to the most recent consultations.

Consultation timeline

Forecasting approach register

The Forecasting Approach Register summarises and responds to:

• Matters raised outside formal consultation processes. Note that the register does not duplicate matters raised within formal consultations.

• Feedback on AEMO’s Forecasting Approach and consultation timeline, as per best practice described in section 2.1 of the AER’s Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines.

• Actionable feedback on how AEMO engages with stakeholders on forecasting matters.

AEMO will periodically update the Forecasting Approach register to include new matters, provide responses and update the status of matters or other information. 

Feedback on the register can be provided at the Forecasting Reference Group meetings, or at any time via email to energy.forecasting@aemo.com.au.